This market resolves YES if there are documented instances of long queues (>1 hour wait time) for basic consumer goods in at least 3 major Russian cities during 2025, as reported by major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg). Resolution will be based on multiple independent reports.

Sources: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/03/is-the-kremlin-overconfident-about-russias-economic-stability https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/risks-russias-two-speed-economy-2025

Background

Russia's economy faces significant challenges due to international sanctions and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While the Kremlin projects confidence about economic stability, some experts warn of potential shortages and economic instability in 2025. Currently, there are no widespread queues for basic goods in major Russian cities, but historical precedent from the 1990s shows that such situations can develop rapidly under economic stress.

Resolution Criteria

Market resolves YES if ALL of the following conditions are met during 2025:

• Documented queues with wait times exceeding 1 hour for basic consumer goods (food, hygiene products, etc.)

• Queues must occur in at least 3 different major Russian cities

• Evidence must be verified through:

  • Reports from multiple major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg)

  • Multiple independent sources confirming the same events

Market resolves NO if:

• Insufficient evidence of queues meeting the above criteria

• Queues occur in fewer than 3 cities

Considerations

• Major Russian cities (pop. >1M) include Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Chelyabinsk, Samara, Omsk, Rostov-on-Don, Ufa, Krasnoyarsk, and Voronezh