The ban needs to be enacted legislatively after market creation.
What counts:
ban on distilled spirits only
ban for people born after a given date (simmilar to NZ tobacco ban)
extremely restrictive personal quotas (<20% average consumption prior to enactment)
What does not:
increasing drinking age
restricting sales to a small number of outlets
supreme court decision finding the sale of alcohol unconstitutional
anything a country with a theologically driven legislature does
an attempted ban that gets legally overturned before coming into effect
All timeframes:
Will any country at least partially ban alcohol before 2028 for non-religious reasons?23%
Will any country at least partially ban alcohol before 2030 for non-religious reasons?24%
Will any country at least partially ban alcohol before 2036 for non-religious reasons?30%
Will any country at least partially ban alcohol before 2045 for non-religious reasons?54%
Will any country at least partially ban alcohol before 2060 for non-religious reasons?52%
Will any country at least partially ban alcohol before 2100 for non-religious reasons?60%
See also:
Will any country legalize recreational use of benzodiazepines before 2100?62%
Will any country legalize recreational use of opioids before 2100?69%
(and other timeframes)
1,000
3.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00