August 2025 market

6 successful in first 16 days
Only 2 with planned dates on 13th and 16th.
While 5 with planned dates in July and this leaves room for a few more slots but 3 from VSFB by 22 July when there was one today seems unlikely to be achieved rather than being ambitious but achievable.

Planned launches sorted itself out a little from above messy situation.
6 successful in first 16 days
6 with planned dates in July and this possibly leaves room for 2 more slots, one ~28-31 from SLC-40 and one ~30/31st from VSFB.

Edit: or maybe 3 slots are possible if pad SLC40 is used 21 24 27 and 30/31 which is possible with 6 day drone ship and 3 days for pad turnaround. That would put 3 launches at different pads on 30/31st so might be somewhat pushing it and subject to slip(s).

7 successful in first 21 days
7 with planned dates in July and this possibly allows 1 more slots but with a 1 day delay this is getting harder to fit in.,

9 successful in first 23 days
5 with planned dates in July and no potential slots that I can see.
3 planned in last 2 days so certainly potential for slippage.

2 successful in 2 days
but only one with a planned date on 8th.
Good start but trending badly?

3 successful in first 8 days
Only 2 with planned dates on 13th and 16th.
VSFB pad last used 28 June is getting to be a large gap - could add a launch before 16th or maybe OCISLY or something is getting a maintenance break?

2 VSFB launches now appeared with dates of 14th and 17th
So potentially 7 by 17th

The page shows 30 since April 28 (which was 58 days ago). So naïvely, if I assume that SpaceX launches at a constant rate, we should expect about 30*31/58 ~= 16 launches. (But in reality, I'd expect the number of launches each month to either follow a Poisson distribution or to be a result of some weird schedule that I haven't figured out yet.)

@duck_master Does your expected Poisson distribution change if you start thinking in terms of approx 3 day pad turnaround, ~6 day droneship turnarounds on East coast 5 day on West coast. 2 pads and 2 drone ships on East coast 1 pad 1 droneship West coast plus Boca Chica for Starship a low chance of one launch in July. Then factor in sometimes being weather delays, sometimes droneships need maintenance, sometimes technical issues, sometimes falcon heavy or crewed launches which have dress rehearsal and increased time for pad turnaround due to changeovers and more possibility of ISS scheduling issues. External payloads likely to have different strange scheduling requirements compared to Starlink missions. Probably more I haven't listed.

Amalgamating lots of different unknown delays gives you what sort of distribution?

@duck_master I probably should add it may be important to note that long delays to payloads are certainly possible but if a long delay occurs then SpaceX can on fairly short notice put a starlink launch or several in the time and a long delay might put that payload after the date when other none starlink launches are due to occur.

I expect above significantly limits the long thick tail of a Poisson distribution. It probably doesn't completely eliminate a long thin tail as there could be a failure requiring mishap investigation that stops all launches but after only ~3 failures in over 500 launches this does seem a fairly low probability and therefore that is a thin tail rather than a thick tail. Major and minor drone-ship and ground support equipment maintenance might also play a role in shape and thickness of the low number tail while the high number tail depends on chance of everything running smoothly.

It seems pretty well confined in the 0 to 20 per month range though the upper boundary might change over time with number of pads and drone-ships, demand., and efficiency improvements in pad and drone-ship turnaround time and maybe a few more factors.

With a range of practical things, I am thinking that probably spoils a pure mathematical function as the expected shape of the distribution?