
Will there be a significant surprise in 2024 that will shape the year?
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Will it shape the year, though? Shaped the US election, yes. It might not even impact the outcome of the election, though. Markets seem pretty chill. I agree it was surprising, but even a couple weeks later we are sort of business as usual with a new candidate.
When you compare to Covid (enough said) and Ukraine, seems pretty minor. The latter: Hot war in Europe, which reshaped geo-political alliances in a pretty big way.
I would say the Hamas attacks were less surprising than anything we're talking about, and probably more impactful than Biden dropping out (less so than Covid or Ukraine invasion).
Going back pre-2020, the previous suitably surprising and impactful event was probably Trump 2016.