Average refers to the average age of death of all humans born that year on planet earth. The current average lifespan is ~72 worldwide and ~85 in Japan (highest national average).
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3.00You express the object of the bet as "average age of death of all humans born that year on planet earth.", which I interpret literally as waiting until all people born in a certain year die and measuring their actual average lifespan.
But after stating that definition, you quote as example life expectancy values, and link a life expectancy graph. Life expectancy is defined as the expected age simulating a person being born now with age-specific mortality rates frozen at their current values throughout their life.
Which one is the actual object of the bet?
@rotatingpaguro The actual object of the bet is your original interpretation. Granted, reported life expectancy is different. The link I quote was intended to be informative even if not directly answering addressing question.
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00