What will be true of the first model to cross 1400 on lmarena.ai?
Plus
6
Ṁ448Apr 1
51%
Gemini Exp
2%
ChatGPT 4o
1.8%
o1
31%
Gemini 2.0
2%
Claude 3.5 Opus
12%
Claude 4
6%
Grok
15%
OpenAI model code named Orion
14%
GPT 5
Will resolve if a model stays at or above 1400 for a week and has a 95% CI with a lower bound of at least 1395 at the end of that week (somewhat arbitrary criteria to ensure the score is based on a sufficient amount of votes)
Will N/A if they change the scoring significantly so that a current model passes 1400.
Current rankings (11/22/24):
Gemini Exp 1121: 1365
ChatGPT 4o Latest (2024-11-20): 1360
Gemini Exp 1114: 1343
o1 preview: 1334
o1 mini: 1308
Gemini 1.5 Pro-002: 1301
Grok 2 0813: 1289
Yi Lightning: 1287
GPT 4o 2024-05-13: 1285
Claude 3.5 Sonnet (20241022): 1282
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
72% chance
Before 2028, will any AI model achieve the same or greater benchmarks as o3 high with <= 1 million tokens per question?
69% chance
Which of these models have an ELO Rating in the LMARENA (formerly known as LMSYS) by the end of January 2025?
Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by March 2025?
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
56% chance
When will OpenAI release a more capable LLM?
Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by end of June 2025?
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
64% chance
Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?
46% chance
What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?