Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?
Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?
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I've heard this comment several times, and it seems odd given political biases ought to decrease performance in the context of prediction markets.
Resolves based on whether PredictIt has a conservative bent when forecasting the 2028 US presidential election relative to competitor prediction market / forecasting platforms.
Dec 12, 3:19pm: Will the popular perception that PredictIt has a conservative bias persist by end of 2028? → Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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