Resolves Yes if there is credible reports of 5 or more firing (or heavy handed push to resignation, including severance) of Jane Street employees affiliated with Effective Altruism (EA forum regular posters, EA meetup regular or occasional attendee), within 2 months, as reported by EA forum or other source recognized as reliable on EA matter by effective altruists.
There must additionally be rumor of the ideological nature of the firing, or absence of another mundane cause of dismissal (e.g. downsizing of the firm, implication of the fired employee in an illicit scheme, ... )
In case of ambiguity, which is likely to happen due to NDA and such, I may temporarily halt trading (temporary market close), discuss in the comment, and reserve the right to resolve N/A. I welcome comments and suggestion regarding the resolution criteria, if formulated well in advance of the resolving event.
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3.00@CamillePerrin Jane street also has a pretty unique culture, such that I think it's not a good indicator of broader trends. For one thing, their business model is such that they don't have to worry about moral fads and fasions as much as most companies. They just continue making money on the markets.
Take some people who were mild to medium-ly positive on EA, and measure if they start talking about it less?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00