Trump prison time in hush money sentence before election day?

Basic

Ṁ900

Nov 11

99.0%

No prison time

1.0%

1-11 months

1.0%

12-23 months

1.0%

24-35 months

1.0%

36-47 months

1.0%

48+ months

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence passed in this case, regardless of appeals. If the first sentencing in this case does not include jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No".

If no sentence is rendered in this case by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, "No prison time" will resolve yes and all other markets will resolve no.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Court cases

#Prison Markets

#Law & Order

#Trial of the Century

#Trump indictment(s)

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bought Ṁ19 YES7mo

Resolves to "no prison time".

10mo

Make sure to read the rules, if no sentence is passed before election day, the market will immediately resolve to "no prison time."

7mo

@CactusHunter This should resolve.

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What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

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