See for example this video from Boom, planning passengers by 2029.
Some clarifications of the criteria:
- There is no lower limit on how long the plane has to fly at the supersonic speed. The moment a plane carries commercial passengers at a speed which is supersonic at the altitude of flight, this qualifies for YES resolution. 
- "Commercial Passenger" means someone who unexpectedly had to choose a different option than the supersonic flight would be more likely to re-book on a major airline like American or Delta than on a business jet. This will be somewhat subjective but important factors will include - Is the experience on the supersonic plane more similar to a regular airline than a business jet? To which is the ticket price more similar (log scale)? Do the passengers mostly fly business? 
- At least two passengers are all that is required for this to resolve YES. 
- For how long does the Supersonic phase of the flight has to last for this to resolve as Yes? 
- Will this resolve as Yes if the plane does carry some paying passengers but one cannot easily buy the ticket via Google Flights? 
- How many commercial passengers have to be carried by 2030 for this to resolve as Yes? 
A pretty noisy signal, but the Glassdoor reviews for Boom Supersonic are brutal https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Boom-Supersonic-Reviews-E2183118.htm