Which countries will be members of NATO at the end of 2026?
Which countries will be members of NATO at the end of 2026?
Basic
26
Ṁ10k2027
99.9%
Sweden
24%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11%
Ukraine
4%
Georgia
95%
United States of America
98.7%
Canada
98.8%
United Kingdom
4%
Kazakhstan
2%
Tuvalu
10%
Israel
1%
North Korea
22%
Moldova
1%
Russia
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If NATO is disbanded, do all options resolve to No? What about if it's replaced with a similar organization?
answered1y
Tuvalu
@wadimiusz I don't understand what you are asking. I suppose if someone puts up a country that is already in NATO and if that country remains in NATO until the close date, I'll resolve that YES.
@BoltonBailey huh, the profit I will make on adding an obvious choice is not worth the cost of adding a new answer...
Edit: nevermind
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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