The market resolves YES if through some official channel, Israel proclaims its sovereignty over territory of the West Bank hitherto outside its domain, before 2026.
Resolves NO on December 31st, 2025 otherwise.
See also:
/Bayesian/will-israel-annex-a-part-of-gaza-by
/Bayesian/will-israel-annex-a-part-of-the-wes (This market)
/Bayesian/will-israel-annex-part-of-palestine
/Bayesian/will-israel-annex-a-part-of-gaza-in
1,000
3.00The Knesset is likely to pass a bill regarding annexation today. However, that bill is merely declarative, and have no legal implications.
I do not think that such a bill should result in a Yes resolution for this market.
if israel through an official channel declares its sovereignty over territory hitherto outside its domain, whether it has legal implications or not, I think it would count, per the stated resolution criteria? Ig could you explain why you interpret the resolution criteria to require legal implications, I likely will be swayed in this specific case that it isn’t sufficient depending on the details, since the market seems confident of this, but I’d like to understand more the reason behind your perspective
@Bayesian I made a mistake translating it to a “bill”. What passed yesterday is basically a statement, not a bill.
The statement says that the west bank is inseparable part of Israel, and Israeli sovereignty should be applied to it (I’m paraphrasing).
If it would have been a bill that would actually applied said sovereignty, this would have been another thing.
De jure, Israeli law still doesn’t apply in the west bank (unlike Golan heights, for example).
Less than six months to pass a historic annexation bill with a minority coalition? How do you envision this happening, politically ?
I believe these odds are way too high.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_Israeli_annexation_of_the_West_Bank
It clearly has not happened yet. Israel has not proclaimed sovereignty.
@BrunoJ Have they proclaimed sovereignty over any new territory? Is your claim that Israel proclaims sovereignty exactly over the parts of Area C where there are settlements?
@BrunoJ The status regarding sovereignty of those areas hasn't changed. They have not been incorporated into Israel proper under Israeli law. The [re]construction of residential areas has nothing to do with whether annexation has occurred. Annexation does not require settlement construction, and settlement construction doesn't create a proclamation of sovereignty.
https://chatgpt.com/share/683baa77-6668-8009-81b3-3950f4f1f31f
@Bayesian GPT is reliable here.
@BrunoJ Obviously doesn’t count. “A step towards de facto annexation” does not count come on.
@BrunoJ Anyway, read the market description.
"The market resolves YES if through some official channel, Israel proclaims its sovereignty over territory of the West Bank hitherto outside its domain, before 2026."
Has Israel proclaimed sovereignty? No they have not. To use your dumb analogy, the market was "Russia declares war on Ukraine" then how would it resolve?
@BrunoJ Hasn't Israel annexed all of Area C already then if you use that definition? Is this new?
"The market resolves YES if through some official channel, Israel proclaims its sovereignty over territory of the West Bank hitherto outside its domain, before 2026."
Has Israel proclaimed sovereignty?
@nathanwei No need to be rude. Is the official approval of settlements not an official act?
@BrunoJ Of course it is. Is Area C "hithero outside of its domain"? Under Oslo Israel already fully controls Area C. If this is your definition of "annexation", then Area C already has been annexed.
@BrunoJ Has Israel proclaimed its sovereignty? No. Israel does not claim sovereignty in Area C. Certainly it's not true that they claim sovereignty on the parts of Area C with the settlements and not the other parts. Huh?
@BrunoJ The Ukraine war is a war, but Russia didn’t issue a formal declaration. This is tough to call an annexation because 1. Generally the mechanisms by which settlements expand are by land purchases and such, not by forcibly expelling any current occupants, 2. Israel has explicitly annexed land before (East Jerusalem) and it didn’t look like this.
"We are being blessed with the opportunity, thank God, of seeing an expansion of the borders of the land of Israel, on all fronts," he said. "We are being blessed with the opportunity to blot out the seed of Amalek, a process which is intensifying."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/israel-west-bank-settlements-1.7547426
The second most powerful person in the Israeli government is speaking of current events as an expansion of the borders of Israel.
@BrunoJ Since when is Smotrich the second most powerful person in the government? That would be Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Justice Yariv Levin. Smotrich is the Finance Minister.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-seventh_government_of_Israel#Ministers