Will Gary Marcus get AGI-pilled in 2025?
Will Gary Marcus get AGI-pilled in 2025?
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Gary Marcus has been skeptical of AGI soon.
Will he change his mind this year? For example, if he says "wow, those people freaking out about AGI soon were more right than I was" that counts. If he updates slightly, that doesn't count.
I will resolve YES/NO by poll majority with me as the tiebreaker.
Poll answers should be based on Gary Marcus' public statements. If needed, I'll ask him in December 2025, and that may produce a yes/no answer, which should make the poll easy.
A later reversed change of mind also counts, so if it's giving clear YES, I might run a poll early.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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