Will Alphafold 4 be announced in 2024?
Will Alphafold 4 be announced in 2024?
Basic
12
Ṁ905resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Any announcement along the lines of https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-deepmind-isomorphic-alphafold-3-ai-model/ (but for alphafold 4) resolves this market YES.
For example, it may start with:
Introducing AlphaFold 4, [...]
The announcement must be made by Google, Alphabet, Google Deepmind, or a related entity.
If Alphafold 4 hasn't been announced before 2025, resolves NO.
See also:
Will Alphafold 4 be announced in 2024?NO (this market)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ25 | |
| 2 | Ṁ14 | |
| 3 | Ṁ11 | |
| 4 | Ṁ10 | |
| 5 | Ṁ6 |
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Alphafold 4 be announced in 2025?
69% chance
When will AlphaFold 4 be announced?
Will Aleph Alpha fold by 2028
45% chance
Will o4 be released before 2026?
72% chance
Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?
19% chance
Will Apple announce a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2025?
4% chance
Will Apple announce a foldable tablet by Dec 31, 2025?
3% chance
Will Apple release a folding phone before 2026?
5% chance
Will o4 be released before 2027?
86% chance