Will AI double the human lifespan within 5 years? (Before february 2030)
Will AI double the human lifespan within 5 years? (Before february 2030)
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Will AI double the human lifespan within 10 years? (Before february 2035)20%
WARNING: If this is ambiguously achieved (new antiaging tech of uncertain capability) , the market may remain open for a while, so we can learn whether or not this happened.
Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ambiguously Achieved Technology:
If new antiaging tech of uncertain capability is involved, the resolution may not be immediate.
Extended Market Period:
In cases of ambiguity, the market will remain open beyond the initial closing time to allow for further evaluation.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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