Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
10
Ṁ532
2028
48%
chance

The LLM must not be limited to only playing chess. For example, if an LLM can play chess and hold a conversation, it counts. However, it cannot make use of a non-LLM based chess engine, or non-LLM related computation, like a calculator or a python script.

A super grandmaster has a FIDE Elo rating of 2700 or more.

The super GM must be trying to win the game.

The game format is unspecified. The GM can be blindfold, or play on a board whose moves are relayed to the LLM via standard notation, or anything else.

duplicate, with different resolution criteria, to

  • Update 2025-06-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that they would count an AI that is like a 'human brain in AI form' for the purposes of this market. This indicates a broad interpretation of what constitutes a 'large language model'.

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What qualifies as LLM? Just how much must the architecture resemble what we have now?

@patrik Do you find any loophole or flaw with this draft def?

A large language model is a neural network with millions to trillions of parameters, trained on vast amounts of text data, that can generate coherent human-like text and perform diverse language tasks through a unified learned representation of language.

@Bayesian Yes this doesn't limit the architecture much.

@Bayesian I propose that you limit it to only verbal reasoning plus no new major architectural changes (not sure how to quantify that one tbh).

@patrik Yeah that is tricky. If it has non verbal reasoning using internal representation id definitely count that i think. Yeah tricky to tell what future architectural changes are ‘too big’ or wtv before they are created. I am tentatively fine with a pretty weakly limited architecture where it feels like the llm is a at least partly text based intelligence that thinks about and plays chess in a way that doesnt feel like it’s cheating against the human, ie it’s using its brain and reasoning without like a specialized chess computer program.

@Bayesian I don't think something centered around language can do it but if it's just partially using language then sure. It might not make a lot of sense to call it LLM tho.

@patrik i think something centered around language can do it? What do you have in mind that would partially use language and be superhuman at chess but that it would be a stretch to call an llm?

@Bayesian The human brain.

@patrik I see. Yeah i’d want something like a human brain in ai form to count for the purpose of this market so it doesnt seem like a problem?

@Bayesian But it'd be a stretch to call it LLM.

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