Next Anthropic Model tops Chatbot Leaderboard? (lmarena.ai)

Ṁ18k

Jun 14

21%

chance

ALL

By arena score, when it first appears on the leaderboard (unless it doesn't appear there in the first month after release, in which case the market resolves N/A).

If they announce two models at once (for example, they release 3.8 opus and 3.8 sonnet at the same time or on the same day), then this market will consider the highest arena score of the models announced on that day.

Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The arena score will be determined using the default view on lmarena.ai, including its default filters and other default settings, as they are active when the model first appears on the leaderboard.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

15 Comments

51 Holders

111 Trades

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@Bayesian want to get out of some of your position? I'll sell YES if you put up a limit order at a good level.

@HenriThunberg i don't mind this market, i'd rather bet on the market that doesn't consider the possibility of them migrating to style control by default. i'd want to massively increase the size of my position on that one if possible

but like this one the market price seems fine and maybe a bit too high but i don't rly wanna sell nor buy more

hey come onnn they changed the default settingsssss

since it wasn't specified in the description which settings are considered, ig whatever shows up by default on the main link is what should resolve this market? or settings at market creation. not sure, leaning toward 1) right now

for context:

@Bayesian what happened ?

@Bayesian they're trying to debias the ranking in terms of response style?

@MalachiteEagle style control ON becomes new default setting, and claude is the one model most positively affected by style control

@MalachiteEagle correct yeah, without style control a lot of the elo is stuff like how much it yaps (response length) and whether it uses lists and whatnot

@Bayesian I'm a YES holder so I'm biased. I'm fine either way but Please Please clarify before the new model drops

@FergusArgyll yeah we'll go with the default view on lmarena, with the default filters and whatnot

bought Ṁ250 NO

@HenriThunberg is there a probability you would bet a lot more at? others lmk as well. I'd like to increase the volume of my position if possible, and am hoping i'll find counterparties that also want to

bought Ṁ550 YES

@Bayesian I can take a big load at 10%, yes :)

opened a Ṁ4,000 NO at 12% order

@jim only 6000 shares? what kind of tiny upside is that? i'd bet more if i were you

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