Manifold toxicity conditional market - EOY 2025
Basic
6
Ṁ2402026
15%
Manifold becomes toxic && manifold gets to 10k DAU
24%
Manifold becomes toxic && manifold doesn't get to 10k DAU
19%
Manifold doesn't become toxic && Manifold gets to 10k DAU
42%
Manifold doesn't become toxic && Manifold doesn't get to 10k DAU
A stark distinction between comments and discord discussions, between Polymarket and Manifold, is that polymarket people are pretty rude in that they say the most offensive version of what they mean rather than the least. I think this is mostly a political divide thing.
However, if Manifold's culture goes significantly closer to Polymarket's, in that people often say rude things (by my subjective opinion), will Manifold get to 10k daily active users (DAU 7 day average) by the end of 2025? Alternatively, if it doesn't get more "toxic", will it have such a successful growth? The conditional market reflects these different possibilities.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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