This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Sonnet 4.6 thinking model to appear on METR's graph. Claude Sonnet 4.7 counts for the purpose of this market, if 4.6 is skipped. So does 4.75, but 5 would not count.
50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time. See METR's "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" for the technical definition. Claude 3.7 Sonnet, released in February 2025, was the leading model with a 50% horizon of 59 minutes.
Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
See also:
/jim/claude-45-opuss-metr50-horizon (jim's original market)
/Bayesian/claude-opus-45s-metr50-time-horizon (my version)
/Bayesian/gemini-3s-50-time-horizon-per-metr
/Bayesian/grok-420s-metr-50-time-horizon
/Bayesian/claude-sonnet-46s-metr-50-time-hori (this market)
/Bayesian/grok-5s-50-time-horizon-per-metr
1,000
3.00