https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Only FORSA & INSA counts
Update 2025-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Tiebreaker Rule Clarification:
A scenario where there is a draw (i.e., the AfD ties with another party in the polls) will not count as the AfD being the largest party.
Update 2025-04-08 (PST): - CDU/CSU counting: The CDU/CSU alliance is counted as a single party when determining which party is the largest according to the polls. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Update:
If the AfD leads in FORSA but not in INSA (or vice versa), the market will resolve to yes.
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@traders The Second Version of this Market is Live becouse the AfD isnt the biggest Party anymore https://manifold.markets/Base/when-will-the-afd-be-the-largest-pa-gszNuIILzy?play=true
why tf is a (partly)nazi party the most popular in my country 😭
@traders First poll where the AfD is the largest party with 25% (doesn't count of course because it's not INSA or Forsa)
