Also related, also incompatible with such a high probability here: https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20?r=Ymg

Will GPT-5 be released before Aug 2025?

56% chance. Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before August 1st 2025 Questions with the same criteria: @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb584056 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20-f155aef83a4b @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20-b4b9e56da814 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20-0a804511572e @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20-6e2ba03f7479 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-5a18f221c267 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20 (this question) @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20 In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, GPT-5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date. A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of GPT-5) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question. If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.

No new model- I have extended this market for another month.

"o4-mini-high" is definitely stupid and sounds like an edible or pre-roll from the dispensary.

Current price seems inconsistent with prices here: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/when-will-openai-broadly-release-th

By when will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?

OpenAI is expected to release a new flagship model called GPT-5 sometime this year or early next year, although Sam Altman has said that he's not sure if they'll actually call it GPT-5. This market will resolve based on the official, confirmed public release of that anticipated model. If it is not named GPT-5 then Altman/OpenAI must make it clear that it is the same anticipated model which everyone has been expecting to be called GPT-5. If this is not clear, a model not named GPT-5 will not count for this resolution. A test release like the GPT2 chatbots put up on Chatbot Arena before the release of GPT-4o would not count for this market, and neither would something like the preview release of GPT-4 through Microsoft Azure. This market requires a broad, official release which is either free or available at a reasonable cost like through a GPT plus membership. These exact resolution criteria may be updated to better match the spirit of the question, and your suggestions are welcome in the comments. All options in this market resolve NO as that month arrives until the anticipated model is broadly released and all remaining options then resolve YES.

Or are YES bettors expecting a non-GPT5 model to be released ~this month, followed by GPT-5 later this summer?

Would GPT-5o qualify as a stupid name?

Also, I disagree that "o5" is a non-stupid name but it's your market so you can define "stupid" however you want

@MichaelDickens Yes, GPT-5o would be a stupid fucking name.

Oh man, I became the second largest YES holder correctly predicting the o3 pro release on Tuesday, but didn't see the "plus tier only" provision… I feel scammed

@JonasVollmer It was in the description from the creation of the market. Title update was done by a moderator.

@TimothyBandors yeah I know :( I wish it was more salient from the beginning

What happens if GPT-5 is released and, on the same day, o3-pro (or some other model with a “stupid fucking name”) is made available to Plus tier?

@BrendanEREPh gpt-5 is not releasing along o3-pro being available in plus. gpt-5 is supposed to combine their model families into a single product.

@BrendanEREPh Resolves NO. Only NA if when I load my account, I see multiple models added at the same time. Same day does not equal same time

@256 source for “combine the model families”? hadn’t heard of that

@ThomasPoltoranos i made it up

@ThomasPoltoranos just kidding

@256 Thanks!

For Pro

https://x.com/sama/status/1932532561080975797?t=BxWsz-enMgGqLOqxzdyjEA&s=19

https://openai.com/de-DE/chatgpt/pricing/

German, Spanish, and Japanese pricing pages show o3-pro as a Pro, not a Plus model, so should not yet resolve as YES

@Soaffine

@Soaffine Yep, I am not resolving until I see a new model on my own chatgpt.com plus tier account.

@TimothyBandors ive cashed out so i no longer have an incentive to convince you of anything, but may i ask, why did you add this condition in the first place? who cares if its on the pro tier instead of the plus tier?

@256 wft, this was not clarified when we bid on it, it's even available in the API. @Bayesian can you clarify if changing the resultion criteria like this should be tolerated?

@Phill afaict it was in the description since the start, a mod changed the title today to prevent confusion

@256 That’s right. This is fine, the title didn’t contain all the details but it often can’t

@Bayesian never mind, I'm regarded sorry, I did not read to the end, just saw the bot clarification description from today. guess I at least realized this early enough to get out cheaply

@256 I care because I want to see the stupid fucking name for the next model with my own stupid fucking eyes when I log into my stupid fucking chatgpt account.

@TimothyBandors that is a fittingly stupid fucking reason