Will Germany accept refugees from Gaza by the end of 2024?

I think it needs a clarification about what is counted as a refugee. Germany already accepted a small number of refugees that had a) German nationality, b) their relatives and c) local workers from German institutions: https://www.bild.de/politik/2023/politik/100-personen-abgelehnt-judenhasser-aus-gaza-wollten-nach-deutschland-fliehen-86271954.bild.html

There's also a duplicate market: https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-germany-accept-refugees-from-g-8bda77f349ac

Before you bet, be aware this user has a history of resolving markets based on controversial criteria, and is often the most profitable user on his own questions

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What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

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