Will any of the current or ex US Congressman or Senator go to space before 2030?

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2031

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Resolves Yes if any of the current or ex US Congressman or Senator left the Earth's atmosphere before 2030

https://www.businessinsider.com/virgin-galactic-blue-origin-spacex-commercial-space-flights-tourism-cost-2023-7#:~:text=Virgin%20Galactic%20launched%20its%20first,Galactic%20flight%20cost%20%24450%2C000%20each.

It cost about 450k to buy a space flight ticket as of now

Edit:
-Only flights to space after Feb 01,2024 counts towards the resolution.
-Astronauts who went on to became Senator or Congressman are excluded from this resolution. (e.g. Mark Kelly is excluded from this resolution). It has to be Senator or Congressman who later went on to a space flight.

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>Astronauts who went on to became Senator or Congressman are excluded from this resolution.

If Mark Kelly goes back to space, does this resolve Yes?

@Unown Yes

Since market creation?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Garn

@jks Yes, thanks. Added this clause:

Only flights to space after Feb 01,2024 counts towards the resolution.

Mark Kelly doesn’t count, right? Unless he goes back

@mattyb thanks for the qusetion. I added this to the criteria:

Astronauts who went on to became Senator or Congressman are excluded from this resolution. (e.g. Mark Kelly is excluded from this resolution). It has to be Senator or Congressman who later went on to a space flight.

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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

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