If the war happens before the following metaculus question resolves, I'll use it:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/

If the war happens after, I'll find some other measure of AI timelines.

I'm open to changing the resolution criteria. My goal is to get a sense of which effect is larger in the case of a China war: the supply chain disruptions to the global chip industry, or the boost that would come from massive military R&D.

If there is no war, the question will resolve N/A.