Resolves YES if, in the best judgement of me or people I trust, Centre for Effective Altruism has committed a significant malfeasance before end of 2026. Else resolves NO.
See also:
https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-vox-write-an-article-about-a-s-c10c60e6e5e0
https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-nyt-write-an-article-about-a-s-aaa3f2ff5c16
1,000
3.00@NathanpmYoung If it comes to light that they have already committed significant malfeasance some time since their founding in 2012, I will resolve YES.
For example, if, before end of 2026, we have significant evidence that they were closely involved in the FTX collapse, I will resolve YES.
What are your standards here? CEA gets criticized all the time. Some call the castle thing a very bad thing (though thats EVF and not CEA), others think thats totally fine.
@harfe I do not consider the purchase of Wytham Abbey to be "significant malfeasance". I am thinking more of things like purposeful accounting fraud. (But this market is very much subjective, and I fully understand if people are reluctant to bet on it.)
I have edited the description to include links to markets with less subjective metrics.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00