Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (collectively known as the E3) formally invoke the "snapback" mechanism to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran on or before October 18, 2025. The market resolves to NO if the E3 does not invoke the snapback mechanism by this date.

Background

The "snapback" mechanism is part of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which was adopted in support of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal. This mechanism allows original JCPOA participants to trigger the reimposition of UN sanctions if Iran fails to comply with its obligations under the agreement.

October 18, 2025, represents a critical deadline, as the ability to invoke the snapback mechanism expires on this date. After this point, the option to reimpose UN sanctions through this specific mechanism will no longer be available to the E3.

Considerations

• The E3 has been increasingly concerned about Iran's nuclear activities and compliance with the JCPOA.

• Invoking snapback would likely face opposition from Russia and China, who might continue to support Iran economically.

• If snapback is invoked, Iran might retaliate by further advancing its nuclear program or potentially withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

• The decision to invoke snapback will likely depend on diplomatic coordination between the E3 and the United States, as well as assessments of Iran's nuclear activities leading up to the deadline.