@AlexShadley Will you resolve this market?

Inspired question for Minneapolis city council election this year https://manifold.markets/MikeLinksvayer/moderates-win-minneapolis-city-coun

I promise to resolve in a timely manner if I am alive. 😭

Does your "subjective judgement" for resolution include at least all the https://www.sfdemocratsforchange.org/ endorsements as counting as moderates?

@rossry Yes, all of the candidates endorsed by this DCCC (which is majority S.F. dems for change) should qualify as moderates.

In addition to the odd numbered district election outcomes, whether majority reached depends in part on classification of even-numbered district supervisors.

2 Stefani would count as moderate, but will be elected to state assembly, I presume (but don't know the rules) replacement to be appointed by new(?) mayor? Presumably Breed or Farrell would likely appoint a moderate, Lurie uncertain, Peskin highly unlikely.

4 Engardio counts, at least his win against Mar in 2022 was touted as a moderate win

6 Dorsey counts

8 Mandelman I'm less certain about, wild guess if fairly even could be a swing vote?

10 Walton does not count as moderate

https://x.com/GrowSF/status/1852457874615881733 includes this image

which shows Mandelman as aligned, and expects Stefani's replacement to also be. Given that D7 is a certainty for this question (SF DCCC and GrowSF endorsements differ, but one of them will win), there will be minimum 5 out of 11 moderates.

Only 1 of Philhour, Sauter, Mahmood, Chandler, and Lai need to win to achieve a majority. I think given current values, the uncorrelated odds they all lose are something like 6% (and that they all win: 2%). But of course the results will be correlated; conceivably there could be a left surge. I guess the current value of this question (82%) is reasonable?

Making a hedging bet

@MikeChenSF haha it was probably too high before anyways