Background
Current US mortality rates (CDC National Vital Statistics, 2022):
Overall population: ~0.9% annually (900 per 100,000)
Ranges from 0.1% (age 30-34) to over 4% (age 80+)
Accidental deaths account for ~0.04% annually (40 per 100,000)
If all diseases and aging were cured, mortality would drop to accident-only rates (0.04%), representing a 95%+ reduction from current levels.
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves as YES if CDC WONDER database shows both of the following for the United States before the correct resolved date:
Total annual mortality rate drops to 0.05% or below.
This pattern holds across ALL age groups: between age 30 and age 84.
Fine Print:
Annual mortality rate drop to 0.05% or below must be sustained for 12 consecutive months.
Age group buckets in CDC WONDER: 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84
Clarification:
If the resolution criteria are unsatisfied by Jan 1, 2100 the market resolves to “Never.”
Update 2025-08-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Mortality for this market counts only deaths from diseases and aging; external causes (e.g., accidents and human-caused deaths) are excluded from the rate used for resolution.
1,000
3.00@Dulaman for the purpose of this question “mortality” only includes disease and aging. Other causes of mortality like accidents and human causes are excluded.