Will I run a full marathon in 2024?
Will I run a full marathon in 2024?
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UPDATE: I have registered for the Big Sur Marathon in April 2024. If I complete this successfully, this question will resolve to YES
I want to run a full marathon in 2024. I have successfully completed a half marathon in 2023, and have plans to run a second half marathon before the end of 2023. I will add news here if/when I do register for a 2024 marathon. In my current workout regimen, I do HIIT workouts 2-3x a week and run 2-3x a week.
This market will resolve once I run a marathon in 2024, or by the end of 2024 (whichever happens first).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00