If myself and a romantic partner both estimate our chances that we'll end up trying a life partnership thing, and our estimates average out to 40% or higher, and it's before the end of 2029, then this market will resolve YES.
We don't have to have a 40% or higher estimate at the end of 2029 for this market to resolve YES, it just needs to happen at any point before the end of 2029.
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3.00Does Aella exclusively date men? (answer optional ofc)
"40% average" is not a working criteria.
Right now, any person, with whom you would estimate 0% chances of partnership, can say 100% and it would be 50% in average.
Is it okay for you, that this market yes resolution can be triggered by just one person?
Wouldn't it be better to set criteria to 75%, so if one goes crazy and gives 100%, the other has to estimate the chances at lest 50%.
@KongoLandwalker In her blog post about dating Nate Soares, they only made a "life-partnership" estimate after many weeks of an intense trial with honest communication. Also, she doesn't say exactly what is being averaged—if it's the log-odds, she can keep going lower to outweigh any bad-faith high value.
@LoganTurner so she HAS to make a non-blind estimate AFTER the potential partner makes his estimate, so she can base of that.
That is silly and unequal rights of the partners.
There is no need to give a certain number definitions if the scale or number axis is unknown.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00