Will a reputable report estimate that 25% or more of US adolescents suffer from depression by 2027?
Will a reputable report estimate that 25% or more of US adolescents suffer from depression by 2027?
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Reputable reports include SAMHSA's National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), but I reserve the right to reference estimates from a report of similar stature.
In particular, I'll reference estimated overall prevalence of a past-year major depressive episode among adolescents aged 12 to 17, as the NSDUH does.
Such an estimate would have to be publicly reported before this market closes (that is, data on 2026 rates of depression won't be considered unless the report is posted before 2027).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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