Which of the above-listed people will be confirmed by the Senate?
§1 - A market will resolve "yes" once the Senate has confirmed that person. This will only apply to Senate confirmable positions
§2 - If the nomination is withdrawn after it is formally submitted to the Senate, the market will resolve "no". If the Senate rejects the nomination, the market will resolve no. For the purposes of this question, a nomination is not confirmed if the nomination is rejected, withdrawn, returned to the president under paragraph 6 of rule XXXI of the standing rules of the Senate, or not acted upon by the Senate for 100 days. For the purposes of this question, a nomination is confirmed once the Senate transmits to the president that the nomination has been confirmed and the president commissions the person.
§3 - If both the Trump administration and the nominee confirm that they will be withdrawing their name from consideration for nomination before their nomination is submitted to the Senate, that market will resolve N/A.
§4 - A recess appointment will not be sufficient to resolve a market to "yes"
§5 - On Adding Answers:
I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market, such as, if the person has not been announced as a nominee to a Senate confirmable position
If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve, that answer will resolve N/A
1,000
3.00
@AaronSimansky We might be misunderstanding what "resigned" meant here? Weeks after that, the WH was still saying Bisignano is the nominee. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/02/17/doge-social-security-musk/
@AdamBraff fundamentally, the rules for this market are clear, the president withdrew the initial nomination, meaning it has to resolve no. That being said, I will add a new answer, noting that his second nomination is still before the senate.