Biased Coin Flips
6
Ṁ410
resolved Jun 21
Resolved
NO
weighted by number of holders +1
Resolved
NO
weighted by mana spent +10
Resolved
NO
weighted by shares held +10

For each sub-question, I will compute X = Y_i+N_i (see below) and let FairlyRandom generate a number between 1 and X. If it is between 1 and Y, the sub-question resolves to YES, otherwise to NO.

For the three sub-questions, the values of Y and N are, respectively:

Y_1 = number of YES holders at close +1
N_1 = number of NO holders at close +1

Y_2 = amount of mana spent on YES as displayed at close +10
N_2 = amount of mana spent on NO as displayed at close +10

Y_3 = number of YES shares held as displayed at close +10
N_3 = number of YES shares held as displayed at close +10

AI-fied Resolution criteria

Each sub-question will resolve based on a random draw using the FairlyRandom number generator. The process is as follows:

  1. Calculation of Y and N values:

    • Sub-question 1:

      • Y₁ = (Number of YES holders at market close) + 1

      • N₁ = (Number of NO holders at market close) + 1

    • Sub-question 2:

      • Y₂ = (Total mana spent on YES at market close) + 10

      • N₂ = (Total mana spent on NO at market close) + 10

    • Sub-question 3:

      • Y₃ = (Total YES shares held at market close) + 10

      • N₃ = (Total NO shares held at market close) + 10

  2. Determination of X:

    • For each sub-question, calculate X = Yᵢ + Nᵢ.

  3. Random number generation:

    • Use FairlyRandom to generate a random integer between 1 and X.

  4. Resolution:

    • If the generated number is between 1 and Yᵢ (inclusive), the sub-question resolves to YES.

    • If the generated number is greater than Yᵢ, the sub-question resolves to NO.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
🤖

@4fa your random number is: 71

Salt: n744xl17gh, round: 5169020 (signature 8be0debacc122df82b56f536b6531d08482ee9028397dfaf5c7eff4ec46c6358008fe07b373f73caf55e628de255398015f1992878e829a9107d4e66032f47a3fd054a8905622184fbf472fb4608534a786e38fe244a5bf04846cca7e9e4024c)

🤖

@4fa you asked for a random integer between 1 and 112, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5169018 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5169020, salt: n744xl17gh.

reposted
  • Y₃ = (Total YES shares held at market close) + 10 = 46+10 = 56

  • N₃ = (Total NO shares held at market close) + 10 = 46+10 = 56

So the third answer will resolve to YES for 1-56 out of 1-112.

🤖

@4fa your random number is: 133

Salt: gias6kogesv, round: 5169012 (signature a01cc100c805c8f8103a5c5797b9fe16ee09b20ff81fd5bd3b15c56e318f470fcd1e825faac5c062c9d72c0d3116d2ef0aa580da26ae5ad63aab1b4ff1b99eaeab4cae01f2687745c5c122218511ddcd7fd2d5a0261d9eefe6bc6f670fd89862)

🤖

@4fa you asked for a random integer between 1 and 136, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5169010 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5169012, salt: gias6kogesv.

reposted
  • Y₂ = (Total mana spent on YES at market close) + 10 = 54+10 = 64

  • N₂ = (Total mana spent on NO at market close) + 10 = 62+10 = 72

So the second answer will resolve to YES for 1-64 out of 1-136.

🤖

@4fa your random number is: 6

Salt: 1cg2sedimjk, round: 5169003 (signature b96177eb0292480174ff5eefb402214c2870d893dea420ef9719140211e46715be03b89fc292df259f33a510b8369186176fa1ac213cd118b3c9ffed93199231c87c1d12727bd58903bc782c7eb16b137d09069c864fc26c43a64ef97ce1a302)

🤖

@4fa you asked for a random integer between 1 and 7, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5169001 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5169003, salt: 1cg2sedimjk.

reposted
  • Y₁ = (Number of YES holders at market close) + 1 = 4+1 = 5

  • N₁ = (Number of NO holders at market close) + 1 = 1+1 = 2

    So the first answer will resolve to YES for 1-5 out of 1-7.

@traders Currently no time to resolve this, so I extend it a bit instead of leaving it closed and unresolved.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules