Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2050?
Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2050?
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Cancer has been the second leading cause of death in the US in recent years [1]. This market will resolve as YES early if any statistics from a government agency indicate that. If no such stats are published, this market will resolve as NO on December 31st, 2050.
This market is designed to gauge how people’s opinions about cancer treatment evolve using fair criteria. However, other factors, such as changes in population structure, may also strongly influence the results.
Reference: 2021 statistics [2]
1st: Heart Disease
2nd: Cancer
3rd: COVID-19
4th: Accidents
5th: Stroke
I set the threshold to be the 4th position to avoid the impact of unexpected events, as seen in COVID-19.
[2] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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