Related

• https://manifold.markets/ryanabel/will-lumina-will-ship-their-oral-pr

• https://manifold.markets/Milli/will-lumina-bcs3l1-by-lantern-biowo

Resolution criteria

• Resolves to the earliest answer matching the first confirmed delivery of a Lumina Probiotic order shipped directly by Lumina to an address in an EU member state, with a delivery dated before January 1, 2028.

• If no such EU delivery is verified by the cutoff, resolve to “Later or never.”

• Acceptable proof: a public carrier tracking page (or screenshot with tracking number), or a public post by the recipient showing the tracking and destination country.

• Deliveries forwarded from non‑EU addresses, clinic applications, or shipments to non‑EU European countries do not count.

• Only EU member states at the time of September 1, 2025 are considered.

Background

• Lumina opened public preorders on April 9, 2024; a prior market on Manifold resolved “YES” when first retail preorders were delivered in late 2024. (https://manifold.markets/ryanabel/will-lumina-will-ship-their-oral-pr)

• As of now, Lumina’s product page states “Shipping ONLY to addresses in the United States,” implying no direct EU shipping yet. (luminaprobiotic.com)

• Media coverage and user reports indicate U.S. deliveries began around late 2024/early 2025. (sfstandard.com, reddit.com)

• EU availability was announced on their website, but the statement has since been deleted. (luminaprobiotic.com)