By what year will any AI lab release a model under ASL-4 measures?
3
Ṁ752030
39%
2026
50%
2027
50%
2028
54%
2029
58%
2030
I'll be using AI safety levels as defined by Anthropic. Anthropic had released all models at ASL-2 until Opus 4, which is ASL-3. By what year will we see a lab using ASL-4 measures?
Note that ASL-4 isn't even defined yet - I will resolve based on whatever standard Anthropic ends up publishing. If Anthropic goes bankrupt / doesn't publish for a long time and someone else releases their own ASL-4 standard then I'll discuss with the market whether to use that standard, but ultimately it will come down to my inscrutable whims.
Time ranges are upper bounds - for 2026 to resolve YES it must happen before 01/01/2026.
Answers resolve inclusively - if 2029 resolves YES then so does 2030.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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