Will Dmitry Muratov be dead before 26 May 2026?
Will Dmitry Muratov be dead before 26 May 2026?
6
Ṁ1882026
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The question resolves YES if the Russian journalist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dmitry Andreyevich Muratov is credibly reported to have died before 26 May 2026, 00:00 Moscow Standard Time.
If he is known to remain alive, the question resolves NO.
Otherwise the question resolves N/A (e.g. if his vital status is unknown due to internment or kidnapping).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Putin die before 2030?
29% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be alive on 1st January 2026?
97% chance
Will Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, die (through causes natural or not) before the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will Vladimir Putin die in 2025?
3% chance
Will Sergey Surovikin die in a plane crash? by 2026
12% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be alive at the end of 2034?
50% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be alive at the end of 2035?
43% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be alive at the end of 2032?
59% chance
Will Vladimir Putin still be alive at the beginning of 2030?
71% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be alive at the end of 2040?
32% chance