Most effective strategy in prediction markets
20
แน€644
Dec 1
94%
Monitor news and act quickly
91%
Monitor new markets and trade early
78%
Develop a good sense of probability and think independently
76%
Arbitrage
76%
Nothing ever happens
69%
Follow good traders
62%
Build technical prediction models
60%
Follow most accurate market (Polymarket?)
59%
Extracting residual liquidity in resolving markets
57%
Use historical data and analytics
55%
Gather information unknown to average traders
50%
Anti-follow bad traders
48%
Buy low sell high before resolution to reduce risks
43%
Bet on rare events
20%
Ask Large Language Models
10%
67

What trading strategies do you find most effective (minimize input, maximize output) in prediction markets?

An anwer will resolve to its market price percentage at the closing of the market.

You are welcome to add answers.

Get
แน€1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

@vdb What kind of models do people build here? Examples?

@121 this strategy always works for me

@121 What's that? I've only heard 69 before.

@vdb What are some good arbitrage deals you've seen on manifold?

@vdb your asking youself

@121 And everybody who has an answer.

@Jo2e2b Is there a good example for a trader who thrives on this? Like a manifold user?

It's funny. I don't do any of these really.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen What do you do then?

@kamn Not easy to describe, apart from the fact that it involves very disparate ways of thinking, never holding slavishly to a strategy, but letting the market define how I approach it.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen How about "Develop a good sense of probability and think independently"?

@vdb My sense of probabilities is probably piss poor, espescially at the extremes. I may be more adept at seeing things as complexly as possible.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Yeah that's hard for me to put into any strategy.

ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTerms + Mana-only Termsโ€ขPrivacyโ€ขRules