Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?
Basic
6
Ṁ722040
52%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This resolves YES if the IMO grand challenge is completed first by an OpenAI team / model or wins the XTS AI-MO competition.
This market conditions on either of these being fulfilled by some team by 2040, if they are not this will resolve N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
3% chance
Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?
68% chance
Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
28% chance
DeepMind beats OpenAI in the IMO 2025? (tie resolves NO)
5% chance
When will an AI win the $5 million XTX AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize?
Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?
7% chance
Google beats OpenAI in the IMO 2025? (tie resolves 50%)
44% chance
Will xAI rank above OpenAI at EOY?
23% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
40% chance
When will OpenAI release its first model with "X" in the name?