Will Pakistan rename itself India within ten years if India renames itself Bharat?
Will Pakistan rename itself India within ten years if India renames itself Bharat?
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If India officially changes its name to Bharat (or a similar name), and in the next ten years Pakistan officially changes its name to India (exactly, excluding "Republic of" type things), this market resolves YES. If Pakistan does not change its name to India, the market resolves NO. If India or Pakistan cease to exist as independent entities before India changes its name to Bharat, this question resolve NA. If loans are removed, this question resolves NA ten years after their final removal.
Ideas for how to formalize "officially changes its name" are welcome.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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