Will there be a major aviation accident this year with greater loss of life than 2023?
Basic
4
Ṁ144Dec 31
26%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For reference, the most lethal aviation accident of 2023 happened January 15 and left 72 dead.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
The market has yet to resolve. However, there was an incident, but that wasn't really an accident, or there is just not enough concise information - What do you think?
2024 Korochansky Ilyushin Il-76 crash
Occupants: 74 (5 identified)
Fatalities: 74 (5 identified)
Survivors: 0
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a fatal airliner crash in the US before the end of 2025?
22% chance
Will there be a plane crash with ≥100 victims in Russia in 2025?
21% chance
On which airline will the next major aviation disaster occur?
Will any minority pilot on a US airline make a mistake that results in at least one other person's death before 2028?
44% chance
Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2030?
50% chance
Will there be a fatal space accident before 2030?
53% chance
Will another Boeing 737 Max crash during flight before the end of 2028?
35% chance
Fatal Canadian airliner incident by end of 2027?
36% chance
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
41% chance
Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2040?
78% chance