Top Chatbot Arena model uses hidden CoT on July 25th, 2025
Plus
3
Ṁ517Jul 26
54%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See the o1 blogpost for a description of hidden CoT, or this market:
/Soli/will-anthropic-release-a-model-that
This market resolves YES if such a model has the top "Overall" rank on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard anytime on the 25th of July, 2025 UTC.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a model with a 69%+ Chatbot Arena win rate against gpt-o1 before June 1st, 2025?
60% chance
Which models will be visible on the ChatGPT default model picker on Mar 29, 2025?
Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena in 2025?
Will China have a model in the top 10 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena on March 1, 2025?
48% chance
Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week)
Will chatgpt stop calling itself a "chatbot" by 2027?
35% chance
Will the best AI model according to the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard be using Mixture-of-Depths, at the end of 2025?
37% chance
Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?
18% chance
Will an open model take the 5th spot on chatbot arena before EOY?
78% chance
Until what date will an Google model hold the top position in the Chatbot Arena? (>=week)