Will there be a Regional War involving 3 or more countries in South America by the end of 2030?
Will there be a Regional War involving 3 or more countries in South America by the end of 2030?
Basic
6
Ṁ1232030
27%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Regional war = a war involving more than 3 states in the same region (South America), waged by national or coalition armed forces in the course of which the sides are pursuing important territorial, economic, military or other objectives.
Conflicts causing at least 1,000 deaths in one calendar year are considered wars by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. This is the threshold I will also be using for this market. I will by using ACLED and UCDP data - any of those two trackers crossing the 1,000 death mark will trigger a YES resolution.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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