Will Apple introduce a new AirTag with better tracking capabilities in 2025?
Will Apple introduce a new AirTag with better tracking capabilities in 2025?
8
Ṁ410
2026
92%
chance

Question borrowed from a prediction on the Connected podcast.

https://rickies.co/annual-2025#rickies-pick1171

Background

Apple's AirTag is a small tracking device introduced in April 2021 that helps users locate personal items using the Find My network. The current model uses Ultra Wideband technology for precise tracking and Bluetooth for wider-range detection.

According to recent reports, Apple is developing a second-generation AirTag (AirTag 2) expected to launch in 2025. The new model is rumored to feature:

  • Enhanced tracking range (potentially tripled) using a second-generation Ultra Wideband chip similar to those in iPhone 15 and Apple Watch Ultra 2

  • Improved security features, including a more tamper-resistant speaker to prevent stalking

  • Possible integration with Apple Vision Pro

  • Similar physical design to the original AirTag

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the conclusion reached by the Connected podcast hosts in their annual review at the beginning of 2026. The market will resolve YES if they determine that Apple released a new AirTag model with improved tracking capabilities during 2025.

The market will resolve NO if:

  • Apple does not release a new AirTag in 2025

  • Apple releases a new AirTag in 2025, but without improved tracking capabilities

  • The Connected podcast hosts determine that the criteria were not met

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules