This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point between January 1, 2025 and June 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the United States conducts a military strike on the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran.

To qualify, the strike must meet both of the following conditions:

1. It targets the Fordow nuclear facility, located near Qom, Iran.

2. The strike is either:

   • Confirmed by the U.S. government, Iranian government, or

   • Credibly reported by a consensus of major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, WSJ), with clear attribution to the United States military or intelligence services.

This includes:

• Airstrikes, missile attacks, or drone strikes directly hitting or attempting to hit the Fordow facility

• Covert sabotage or kinetic attacks attributed to U.S. military/intelligence forces (e.g., CIA or special operations) if widely and credibly confirmed

Does NOT qualify:

• Cyberattacks or digital sabotage

• Attacks by Israel or other actors without clear U.S. operational involvement

• Rumors, leaks, or unconfirmed reports

• Strikes on other nuclear sites (e.g., Natanz) that do not include Fordow

Resolution Source:

This market will resolve based on official announcements or a consensus of credible reporting. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the deadline, the market will resolve to “No.”