Star Wars: The Force Awakens is the top-grossing film in domestic box office records, with total receipts of $936,662,225 according to BoxOfficeMojo. For the purposes of this market, "Barbenheimer" represents the combined domestic box office grosses of 'Barbie' (2023) and 'Oppenheimer' (2023) on BoxOfficeMojo.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barbenheimer's domestic box office gross exceeds $936,662,225 by November 16, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If both Barbie and Oppenheimer definitively stop reporting numbers before November 16, 2023, and the total gross is still less than Star Wars, the market may resolve to "No."
The domestic gross for 'Oppenheimer' can be found here under the heading "domestic": https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15398776/. The domestic gross for 'Barbie' can be found here under the heading "domestic": https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1517268/. The domestic grosses for each movie will be combined for the total Barbenheimer domestic gross. In the event that BoxOfficeMojo ceases to be available or reliable, then other websites that numerically track box office totals may be used.
1,000
3.00@MarcusAbramovitch Alright, BOM is corporate and slow, the numbers are out and we're twiddling our thumbs until they post what we already know.
@jeremiahsamroo Oppenheimer is projected to gross 55-65m more and barbie 60-70m more domestically. They only need 44m more combined to surpass TFA.
@ScipioFabius Barbenheimer only needs to gross a minimum of another ~250 million over the next three months for the market to resolve YES.
@ScipioFabius Also see decay of gross profits per movie over time https://projects.susielu.com/box-office
@TamarSpoerri Yes, but Barbenheimer has grossed only about ≈92% of gross profits that TFA grossed over the same time period, and this gap has been slowly widening since the first box office weekend, basically meaning that Barbenheimer is decaying faster than TFA. What reason people have to think this trend will reverse?
@n1psey From Box Office mojo, see the links in the market description. The gap is shrinking, currently some 94% . Barbenheimer will probably close that gap, but I still dont think it has enough gas to make all the way till the end.
@ScipioFabius Is there historical data somewhere or have you just checked periodically?
Edit: Oh got it, you have to scroll to the right on the table
@ScipioFabius I plotted some graphs which have caused to me to sell my NO position:
Basically the reason TFA is currently ahead is because of its strong second week which was the last week of the year aka the holidays. Now in the third week, Barbenheimer is grossing nearly double and shows that it has far more steam left in it. I think this is due to saturation effects because TFA individually was a much bigger release than either Barbie or Oppenheimer and also because both Barbie and Oppenheimer are generally regarded as better movies. All in all, it seems very likely to me that Barbenheimer will catch up, 75% feels like an appropriate price, if anything it's too low. The folks over at Polymarket betting with real money seem to have come to the same conclusion, the market there is currently at 85%.
@n1psey Yes, this is fair, but Barbenheimer has faced a total of 0 competition. Additionaly TFA was out for far longer then Barbenheimer will be, I think. It hasnt even closed the gap yet, and it has a lot to do after that aswell.