When will the first white woman become president of the United States?
When will the first white woman become president of the United States?
Plus
4
Ṁ5412049
3%
2025
15%
2029
15%
2033
12%
2037
12%
2041
18%
2045
12%
2049
12%
Some resolution criteria:
Just needs to be sworn in as president - does not have to be elected (e.g., VP elevated because of the death of a President counts)
I'm going to go with the common understanding of the person's gender and race (e.g., Kamala Harris is commonly identified as a woman of color, Hillary Clinton is commonly identified as a white woman). If this becomes controversial enough that I don't think I can make a judgement as an outside observer, I'll cancel the market (I don't anticipate this happening, but you never know).
I'll resolve the market as soon as they're sworn in, so the first year it happens it will resolve.
If you think something funny is going to happen in the off years, then "other" is your friend. I will probably subdivide it periodically as I think there's interest.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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