This market evaluates the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement being reached between Russia and Ukraine by Easter (April 20, 2025). A "ceasefire" refers to an official or effective cessation of hostilities, whether temporary or permanent, where both sides halt active military engagements. The outcome will be determined based on credible reports of such an agreement, a significant reduction in military actions or a formal declaration of ceasefire by the parties involved by the given date.

Resolution Criteria:

• YES: A ceasefire agreement is officially announced or military activities between Russia and Ukraine are effectively paused (either formally or informally) by April 20, 2025.

• NO: No ceasefire agreement or effective halt in hostilities by the stated date.

This market will close once there is credible confirmation of a ceasefire or lack thereof.