What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?
Basic
2
Ṁ402026
36%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Similar to this market - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-is-manifolds-pdoom-will-resolv
The difference here is I will be resolving this to the % of the result of a poll conducted last week of 2026.
Related markets:
Right now - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-is-manifolds-pdoom-will-resolv
End of 2024 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the
End of 2025 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-68646ab65a1e
This market - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-7c833accc9b3
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?
30% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
35% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
58% chance
What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?
Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
18% chance
Will Manifold be subject to a DDoS attack before the end of 2025?
67% chance
At the end of 2025, will Manifold think things have changed for the worse for us as a society?
88% chance
Will Manifold still be around in 2035? (resolves N/A at the end of 2026)
51% chance
What will today's p(doom) be determined to be retrospectively by post singularity simulations?
12% chance
Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027
22% chance