What will be true of my cell phone usage until 2030?
What will be true of my cell phone usage until 2030?
Basic
5
Ṁ972030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
65%
Every 7-day period, I will use and carry around an Android device capable of making phone calls.
45%
I will use a non-phone smart device more than an Android phone on at least one 7-day period.
17%
I will use an iPhone more than an Android phone on at least one 7-day period.
My phone history
Misc flip phones
Google Nexus and then Pixel phones, starting 2014, sophomore year of college
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will I still be using a smartphone in a decade?
73% chance
What will be true of the iPhone 2025?
Will agi take over my phone by 2035?
30% chance
Will an atomic phone be sold by 2031?
7% chance
Will smartphones be substantially replaced with voice LLM interfaces by 2030?
19% chance
Will there be a national (US) school phone ban by 2030?
16% chance
Will Apple still be selling a device called the iPhone in 2035?
73% chance
What significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]
Will iPhone sales drop below 100 billion USD by 2040? (~4x decrease)
60% chance
What will be the most popular way to interact with a portable digital devices in 2030?